The latest economic data for the greater Tri-Cities yields a mixed bag of progress and slowdown. For sure, the two counties have continued to add new residents. The 2024 estimate put the number at about 320,000. That’s up from about 317,000 in 2023 and substantially from the pre-pandemic level of 290,000 in 2019.

But other dimensions of the local economy have not matched stride with population gains. Striking is the decline in the labor force. This is defined as the number of people employed or unemployed but looking for work. As of August, the greater Tri-Cities labor force had declined about 2,500 from August 2023 levels. And 2023 brought, for the year, a decline of about 600 from 2022 level.

Not surprisingly, the participation rate in the labor force in 2023 shrunk. It declined to 62.1% from 63.8%. The participation rate is defined as the civilian labor force divided by the population 16 years or older. For years, the rate in the two counties has been higher than that of the state. No longer. In 2023, it was equal.

There are undoubtedly a few explanations, but one lies with retirements. Departures from the workforce aren’t measured, but we can infer what might be happening by looking at the population who are older than 65. Between 2022-23, this segment increased its share of the population by 1%. That’s more than 3,000 people. Whether this is due to aging of the existing residents or an older tilt among newcomers, we don’t know. But the trend is likely to continue.

Employment in 2024 is also down over 2023. According to the August snapshot, it’s about 2,000 jobs off. For years, the local economy was a job machine. For example, by 2019 nearly 19,000 more people were employed here than in 2015. In the last three years that growth has flatlined.

Taxable retail sales

On the other hand, 2024 taxable retail sales appear robust, at least through the first half of the year. The year-over-year increase in the first quarter for the combined counties was 4.5%, and for the second quarter, 4.6%. Interestingly, in Q2, the gain was entirely attributable to Franklin County. Compared to Washington state, this a strong showing. For the first two quarters of the year, the state’s gains have been 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.

Retail spending depends on income, of course. And for 2023, the best measure of the “middle,” or median, in household income showed no increase in the greater Tri-Cities. At $83,053, it was statistically the same as in 2022. This stands in contrast to gains statewide of 3.6%, and in the nation at 4%. It is worth noting that residents can boast of levels that have historically been the highest among Eastern Washington metros, and higher than the U.S. Of course, even if the median didn’t change, total income in the two counties increased due to the population increase of 4,500.

The minimal growth in median income is puzzling. After all, average earnings went up by 4.5% in 2023 over the year. Wage earnings make up the largest slice of the personal income pie. Then what might have happened to income? Federal transfer payments, the second-largest slide, did not budge from 2022 levels.  We also need to remember that household income numbers are estimates with a margin of error.

Growing poverty rate

Another dimension of income is its distribution. One way of generally assessing the status of the bottom quintile is the poverty rate. It, too, did not enjoy a stellar year in 2023. Census estimates put the share of the population living at or below the federal poverty threshold at 12.1% in 2023, an increase from 10.8% the prior year. The poverty rate here has always been above the rate for the state but typically below the national rate.

The local rate has retreated since the 2019 rate of 12.9%, but only by a bit. The estimated count of Tri-Citians living in poverty in 2023 was not trivial: more than 44,000. The threshold for a family of four last year was $30,000.

Housing market

Let’s end this brief tour of the current economic landscape with the housing market. The rapid increase in housing costs has been a hot-button issue here and elsewhere. Pre-pandemic, the resale price of the median-priced house in the two counties was well under $300,000. Fast forward to 2022, it jumped to the $440,000 range.

The good news: since then, the median has dropped by $10,000, to $20,000, depending on the quarter, and stayed in that range. It seems unlikely that the market will experience more declines, given population growth. But no increase over the next few quarters should be seen as a win for the economy.

D. Patrick Jones is the executive director for Eastern Washington University’s Institute for Public Policy & Economic Analysis. Benton-Franklin Trends, the institute’s project, uses local, state and federal data to measure the local economic, educational and civic life of Benton and Franklin counties.